巴菲特到底用的是哪个折现率？

Barrons

　巴菲特与一般的专业投资者的一个显著不同就是用相对固定的折现率来计算内在价值。在1994年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会上，巴菲特说道：

　　"In a world of 7% long-term bond rates, we'd certainly want to think we were discounting the after-tax stream of cash at a rate of at least 10%. But that will depend on the certainty that we feel about the business. The more certain we feel about the business, the closer we're willing to play. We have to feel pretty certain about anything before we're even interested at all. But there are still degrees of certainty. If we thought we were getting a stream of cash over the thirty years that we felt extremely certain about, we'd use a discount rate that would be somewhat less than if it were one where we expected surprises or where we thought there were a greater possibility of surprises." 　“在一个长期债券利率为7%的世界里，我们当然希望我们把税后的现金流至少用10%的折现率折现。但是，这也取决于我们对业务的确信程度。我们对业务越确信，就越愿意投资。我们必须对任何业务感觉相当确信才会对之产生兴趣。但是，确信也是有不同程度的。如果我们相信我们会取得30年极为确定的现金流，我们就会用较低的折现率，低于我们用于折现预期会有意外或者有很大的可能有意外的业务的折现率。” 　　在1998年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会上，巴菲特又说道：　　"In order to calculate intrinsic value, you take those cash flows that you expect to be generatedand you discount them back to their present value - in our case, atthe long-term Treasury rate. And that discount rate doesn't pay youas high a rate as it needs to. But you can use the resulting present value figure that you get by discounting your cash flows back at the long-term Treasury rate as a common yardstick just to have a standard of measurement across all businesses." 　　“为了计算内在价值，你需要把预期产生的现金流折现为现值——我们用的是长期国债收益率。这个收益率并不能提供所需的足够高的回报率。但是，你能用长期国债收益率折现所得出的现值作为一个通用标尺来衡量所有的业务。” 　　关于折现率，巴菲特特意做了说明：　　"Don't worry about risk the way it is taught at Wharton. Risk is ago/no go signal for us—if it has risk, we just don’t go ahead. We don’t discount the future cash flows a 9% or 10%; we use the U.S. treasury rate. We try to deal with things about which we are quite certain. You can’t compensate for risk by using a high discount rate." 　　“别担心沃顿商学院所教的风险。风险对我们来说是一个通过/不通过的信号。如果有风险，我们就不会继续。我们不用9%或者10%的折现率来折现未来的现金流。我们用的是美国国债收益率。我们只做我们非常确定的业务。你无法用高的折现率来弥补风险。” “高的折现率并不能弥补风险”，这在格雷厄姆的《证券分析》中早就有非常明确的解释。　其实，归根到底，之所以要用折现率，就在于金钱的时间价值，在于风险。金钱的风险有很多，通货膨胀、机会损失、现金流的变化等等。如果现金流是100%确定的，那么就只剩下了通胀和机会损失。美国国债的现金流就是如此。美国不倒台，国债的支付就是确定的，现金流就是确定的。所以，美国国债的收益率反映的是现金流变化之外的风险。而对大多数投资来说，现金流的不确定性才是最大的风险。如果你能100%确定一个企业的现金流，那么用美国国债收益率也未尝不可。而巴菲特之所以可以用美国国债收益率，就在于他选择稳定的企业，可预测的现金流，在于他对未来现金流的确信程度。　　

温馨提示：投资有风险，选择需谨慎。